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Betting Tips: Cape Dutch can resume winning ways at Musselburgh

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4:40 – Musselburgh – JOHN SMITH´S HANDICAP HURDLE (CLASS 3) (4yo+ 0–130) Good To Soft 2m 4f

John Ferguson who is the bloodstock agent for Sheikh Mohammed and Darley has made a very eye-catching start to his career as a National Hunt trainer.

Before the bad weather hit he had saddled 18 winners from 47 runners since September for a winning strike rate of 38.29%. He happily admits that he has had some help from Sheikh Mohammed in that most of the horses he has in training are ex-Darley inmates.

Cape Dutch is a case in point and ran twice on the flat before moving to John Ferguson’s Suffolk yard. As with most Darley horses he is bred in the blue. By Cape Cross out of a Mr Prospector mare and as a half brother to Cross Appeal and Arisea he was always likely to have the stamina for middle distance hurdling.

He started his Hurdling career in a Maiden race at Huntingdon last August finishing fourth and was entitled to need the run after 11 months off. He won next time out at Hexham with a good turn of foot to see off the second-placed horse. The run was notable as it was the first win for John Ferguson as a trainer. He hacked up at Carlisle on his next start by 11 lengths and on his last run at Cheltenham he finished a very creditable second to Edgardo Sol over 2 miles and half a furlong – a distance which is probably to short for him in smart company.

He steps back up to 2 miles 4 furlongs today which is the distance he won over so easily at Carlisle. The going at Musselburgh is Good to Soft and Cape Dutch won in the ground at Carlisle and finished second in the same going at Cheltenham.

He is ridden by stable jockey Jack Quinlan who has ridden him on all four of his starts for the yard. Jack is a conditional jockey who can claim 5lbs which gives Cape Royal a weight of just 11st to carry today. He is an extremely capable jockey who does not panic if a front runner hares off in front and he is quite happy to run his race safe in the knowledge of the quality of horse he is riding. His record this season is 11 winners from 44 runners.

Cape Dutch runs in a decent Handicap today but he has his ground and the return to 2 ½ miles is in his favour. He has improved with every run he has had over hurdles so far and looks open to a good deal more improvement. He has entries in the Grade 1 Neptune Hurdle and the Grade 1 Alfred Bartlett at Cheltenham and has a big chance today only 3lbs up from his creditable second at Cheltenham last time.
 

 

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TONY WARD

"I live in the North of Cumbria near the Solway Coast. My wife and I own a smallholding where we keep our horses. I have been involved in racing for over 20 years – the highlight being when a 2yo I owned won first time out at Hamilton Park. I work full-time in the racing game spending my time writing, researching and on course as a paddock judge – you can learn more about a horse’s chances watching them in the pre-parade and parade rings than you might imagine."

Read more of Tony's trends at http://freelanceracingwriter.com/


Disclaimer: Please note that Tony offers tips but cannot guarantee the results. All gambling is at your own risk and neither Eclipse Magazine Ltd nor Tony Ward can be held liable for any money lost as a result of following the tips. By using tips from this page you are deemed to have accepted this disclaimer. Please read your bookmaker's gambling guidelines, terms and conditions when placing a bet. 

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