Cheltenham Festival Day 2 – our Eclipster: betting tipster Tony Ward offers his analysis for the Queen Mother Champion Chase.
Queen Mother Champion Chase Statistics
3:30pm 2m (1m 7f 199y) (Old) Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)(Class 1) (5yo+)
The first race at The Festival to cater for high Class 2 mile chasers was the Coventry Cup in 1928, which ran for nine years. The Queen Mother Champion Chase was first run in 1959 under its first title, the National Hunt 2 Mile Champion Chase. The race acquired its current title in 1980 in honour of the Queen Mother’s 80th Birthday.
The Queen Mother Champion Chase has some reasonable recent statistics to ponder:
- All of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs in the same season
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win in the same season
- 16 of the last 17 winners had no more than 4 previous runs in the same season
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous Grade 1 win
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 wins over 2miles or 2 miles ½f
- 14 of the last 15 winners had an official rating of 160 or higher
- 33 of the last 34 winners had a starting price of no more that 11/1
- 14 of the last 17 winners had a starting price of no more than 5/1
- British trained horses have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of the race
With Altior likely to be odds on in the betting, a horse at bigger prices ticks most of the stats boxes today.
Politologue ran against Altior on his last run at Newbury 32 days ago.
His jockey, Sam Twiston-Davies said on today’s Racing Post website: “After a highly promising novice campaign last season, Politologue has taken some significant steps forward this term and landed his first Grade 1, the Tingle Creek Chase, at Sandown in December.
“He is a tough, talented, and very capable two-miler who possesses a good cruising speed and jumps really well.
“Although he was brushed aside by Altior, who is hot favourite for the race, in a three-runner Grade 2 at Newbury last time this is going to be a totally different test and I believe it will favour Politologue.
“We had to make our own running that day and it developed into a game of cat and mouse. The Champion Chase is always a strongly-run race, and the tactics will be different this time.
“In addition to Altior there are two smart performers from the Willie Mullins stable, Douvan and Min, in opposition.
”It’s going to be tough, but Politologue’s preparation has gone really well and I’m hopeful he’s going to run a huge race.”
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