2,000 Guineas at Newmarket: Saturday 5th May, 3:35 Newmarket, 1m (Rowley Mile) Qipco 2,000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Colts & Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo)

The 2,000 Guineas Stakes was first run in 1809. The race was established by the Jockey Club under Sir Charles Bunbury who has also been responsible for co-founding the Derby at Epsom. The race was named after the original prize fund with 2,000 guineas in 1809 being worth £118,590 today. Considering the connections of the winner of this year’s renewal will receive £283,550, the race has more than kept up with inflation.

There are some fairly solid statistics around to help whittle down the field to manageable proportions. All of the winners of the last 12 renewals finished in the first three on their previous outing, with eight of the 12 winning on their previous run. Eleven of the last 12 winners had previously won over 7 furlongs.

Some experience is a prerequisite for recent winners of the event as 11 of the last 12 winners had previously run at least twice, while 10 out of the 12 had run on three occasions or more. Course form is not overly important as only five of the last 12 had run over the course previously. The same remark can be made about winning over 1 mile as only four of the last 12 had run over the distance, with three of the four boasting wins over the distance.

A good Official Rating comes into the equation with a rating of 110 or higher being required to win the race eight times in the last 12 renewals. Previous Group winning form also needs to be noted as 10 of the last 12 winners had won at Group 1, 2 or 3 previously.

Aidan O’Brien’s runners require more than careful consideration as he has saddled the winner on no fewer that eight occasions, more than any other trainer in the history of the race. Five of his eight wins have been achieved in the last 12 renewals.

Finally, the 2,000 Guineas has been a punter friendly event recently with eight out of the last 12 winners being in the top three in the betting.

Of the quartet of O’Brien runners Saxon Warrior is preferred as he has a perfect record of three wins from three runs and boasts Group 1 winning form taking the Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster over the race distance of 1 mile and is proven in the ground.

Of the rest of the field Elarqam could be anything after just two runs last season. Both resulted in wins with his last start seeing his win the Group 3 Tattersalls Stakes at Newmarket over 7 furlongs by 2¼ lengths. The bay colt who was sired by Frankel is trained by Mark Johnston, who is renowned for turning out his seasonal debutants race fit, and given his pedigree he could give the rest of the field more than a little to think about.

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