Sunday 5th May, 3:35 Newmarket, 1m (Rowley Mile) Qipco 1,000 Guineas Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) (Class 1) (3yo)
The 1,000 Guineas was first run in 1814 five years after the inaugural running of the 2,000 Guineas. The race is open to three year old fillies only and is run over the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket.
The biggest priced outsider to win the race was Ferry who won at odds of 50/1 in 1918. The easiest winner was Tontine in 1825 as she was the only runner and was therefore declared the winner by a walkover. Seven other fillies had been entered for the race by their owners who had paid £100 each (£10,400 today) to enter the race, but none of them appeared on the day. Tontine was allowed to claim the prize by merely walking over the course. Many of the early renewals of both the 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas attracted small fields, but this was the only occasion that a winner was declared without the race being run.
Recent statistical trends for the 1,000 Guineas are the exact opposite of statistics needed to win the 2,000 Guineas.
A prep race in the current season is an important pointer when looking for the winner with eight of the last 12 winners running within 31 days of the race. Fillies who won on their previous start also require careful consideration as eight of the last 12 winners fit this profile.
Profiling likely winners should also include previous experience of running at Newmarket and previous experience of running over the race distance of 1 mile. Eight of the last 12 winners had previously run at Newmarket with seven out of 12 having winning form at the course. Previous distance form appears to be a key statistic as nine of the last 12 winners had run over 1 mile. Winning form over 1 mile is less important with only five of the last 12 winners having previously won over the distance.
Racing experience is more important for 1,000 Guineas winners with 10 of the last 12 winners running four times or more before running in the Guineas. Over the past 10 years the mean average of races run by the winner is 5.6 runs.
As with the 2,000 Guineas profile, previous winning form at Group level is a good pointer with eight of the last 12 winners having had at least one win in Group 1 to 3 events. When considering Official Ratings look for horses rated 106 or higher as eight of the last 12 winners had marks of 106 or higher.
The betting is not a completely reliable guide as only four favourites have won any of the last 12 renewals and only 50% of the winners were in the first three in the betting. The odds of the other six winners range from 9/1 to 25/1, so do not be put off if you fancy a runners at a bigger price.
None of the 18 runners declared for this year’s renewal fit the statistics profile completely. Thinking about the stats around the betting it is worth chancing the Richard Hannon-trained Anna Nerium who on Friday morning was trading at 14/1.
She has Group winning form, has won at Newmarket and has an Official Rating of 107. The one area she does not fulfil is the fact that she has not run over 1 mile. However, she won her pre-race, the European Free Handicap over 7 furlongs at Newmarket on 18th April, in very good style by 3 lengths and was running on strongly at the end.
Her trainer is certainly bullish about her chances. Talking to the Racing Post on Tuesday he said: “I’m delighted with her and I thought she won very well at Newmarket. She seemed to enjoy a bit of give in the ground, which it looks like we’ll probably get on Sunday, and she’ll have improved for the run. She’s been cantering since, had one piece of work yesterday and is pleasing us. She definitely runs and Tom Marquand rides.”
Hannon certainly knows how to prepare a winner of the race having won with Sky Lantern in 2013, returning at a price of 9/1.
Please note: tips are followed at your own risk. Please gamble responsibly.