Glorious Goodwood Betting Tips Day 1
Tuesday 30th July – Goodwood – 3:35pm – 2m Qatar Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (3yo+)
The Goodwood Cup is a Group 1 race run over 2 miles. The first running of the race took place in 1808 and was won on three separate occasions by Bucephalas, after which the trophy was permanently awarded to the horse’s owner.
The replacement trophy was a gold cup which was first contested in 1812. The race was originally run over 3 miles, later being cut to 2 miles 5 furlongs. With the reorganisation of Flat racing in 1971 the Goodwood Cup was initially classed as a Group 2 event before being relegated to Group 3 in 1985. It was shortened to 2 miles 4 furlongs in 1990 and reduced to 2 miles in 1986. It regained Group 2 status in 1995 before attaining Group 1 status in 2017.
The last 25 renewals have been dominated by four and five year old horses who have won 14 times between them. Over the last 10 years four and five year old’s have won three times each. Stradivarius won the race in 2017 as a three year old, which was the first time a horse of the Classic generation had won since 1990.
The betting market looks to be a reasonable guide with 10 of the last 12 renewals being won by horses in the first three in the betting, with the favourite winning six of the last 12 renewals.
A recent run would appear to be key as all of the last 12 winners ran within 42 days of the race, with seven of these winning on their last start. Ten of the last 12 winners had also run at least twice prior to the race in the current season and nine of the winners had won at least once earlier in the season. A previous run at Goodwood can be useful as seven of the last 12 winners had run at the course previously, with four of them previously winning at Goodwood.
Form over 2 miles is useful with the seven of the last 12 winners having won at least once over the distance with nine winners previously running over the trip.
An Official Rating of 110 has been required to win nine of the last 12 renewals with 11 of the winners previously winning at Group level.
Stradivarius bids to win the Goodwood Cup for the third time. The five year old chestnut horse has won all of his last seven starts which includes four Group 1 wins. He has run twice this season winning at York and the Group 1 Gold Cup at Royal Ascot. It is very difficult to find any chinks in his armour with two wins from three times in the going, four wins from five starts over 2 miles and two wins from two starts at Goodwood. It will take a very good effort to beat Stradivarius considering that his trainer, John Gosden has saddled 11 winners from 28 runners (39%) over the last 14 days and Frankie Dettori is in similar form with six wins from 18 rides.
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