Saturday 23rd June, 4:20 – Royal Ascot – 6f Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Class 1) (4yo+)
The event was established in 1868 and was originally called the All Aged Stakes. The race was renamed in 1926 in honour of the 9th Earl of Cork as the Cork and Orrery Stakes. In 1971 when the current grading system was introduced the race was give Group 3 status and was elevated to Group 2 level in 1998.
The race was renamed in 2002 to commemorate the Queen’s Golden Jubilee and given its current designation in 2012 to commemorate the Diamond Jubilee of the Queen. The race has held Group 1 status since 2002. Prior to 2015 the race was open to three year olds but since then it has been restricted to four year old horses and older as the new Group 1 Commonwealth Cup was set up in 2015 for the three year olds.
With the race only being barred to three year olds since 2015 it is difficult to look at a statistical age profile for a likely winner. However, the last seven winners have all been four and five year olds. In the last 47 renewals however, horses aged over five have only won on five occasions so it would seem prudent to rule out runners older than five.
The betting from a statistical viewpoint is a bit of a minefield as half of the last 18 winners won at double figure prices.
A happier hunting ground is looking at horses who have won or been placed at Royal Ascot previously as 10 of the last 22 winners have been no worse than placed before winning the Diamond Jubilee Stakes. It is also worth a cursory glance at horses who ran earlier in the week in the King’s Stand Stakes (run on the first day of the meeting) as four of the last fifteen winners of this race ran in the former, although it should be noted that the last horse to do this was in 2008.
A run earlier in the season is absolutely essential as the race has not been won by a seasonal debutant for 40 years. Form over 6 furlongs is also very important as since 1990 only Kingsgate Native has won the race without previously having won over the trip. Interestingly 13 of the last 16 winners had also run over 7 furlongs at some point.
An Official Rating of 112 has been required to win the race in 10 of the last 12 renewals and 10 of the last 12 winners had previously won at Group 1 to 3. In fact previous Group and Listed winners who had won earlier in the season have won 13 of the last 23 renewals.
The Tin Man won this event in 2017 and although he is up against some very strong in-form competition he does appear to be rather overpriced. He won the Listed Weatherbys Stakes on his seasonal reappearance at Windsor in May beating D’bia who reopposes here by ¾ length. He has plenty of winning form in Good to Firm ground and has won five times from seven runs in the going. He has run at Ascot six times in total, winning on three occasions. His form over the race distance of 6 furlongs is also very solid as he has recorded eight wins from 17 runs. He is ridden by his regular jockey, Tom Queally who has won aboard The Tin Man eight times in 16 rides. He also has two Group 1 wins to his name.