Grand National 2018 Tips – 5.15pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 3f 110y shown on ITV
The Grand National is a statistical joy or nightmare depending upon your point of view. But however you view racing statistics, finding a way to pare down a field of 40 runners who will cover 4½ miles and jump no fewer than 30 fences to something more manageable is surely a great help.
- The first port of call is age. The last 7 year old to win the Grand National was in 1940. More recently, 23 of the last 27 winners were ages 9 or older, with 14 of those winners aged between 9 and 10.
- The days of lower class handicappers winning the race are well and truly over with 26 of the last 27 winners having an official rating of 137 or higher.
- Coupled with official ratings is the weight carried by the winner. Weight carried is always a key factor in any race – one could argue especially so over 4½ miles. So, 21 of the last 27 winners have carried 10st 12lbs or less with 16 of these winners carrying no more than 10st 8lbs.
- A recent run is a good pointer. Horses which have run within 55 days of the race have been successful in 26 of the last 27 renewals with 21 of these winners running within 34 days of the race.
- However, beware of runners who ran at The Cheltenham Festival in the same season as just 9 of the last 27 winners fit this profile.
- Previous winning form is not a great help as only 5 of the last 27 winners won on their previous start.
- Talking of winners look for horses who have won no more that 6 times previously as horses matching this statistic have won 24 of the last 27 renewals.
- Previous experience of the Grand National is not necessarily a good pointer with only 6 of the last 27 winners having taken part in the race before.
- However, winning a chase at a distance of at least 3 miles is important with 25 of the last 27 winners having done so.
- Finally, what does the betting tell us about the likely winner? Firstly, it is probably better to stay away from the favourite with only 5 of the last 27 favourites obliging.
- However, 22 of the last 27 winners have returned at double figure prices with 21 of those winners coming from outside the first three in the betting. In fact the average starting price of the last 15 winners is 28/1.
As this is the Grand National with 40 runners we will pick three against the field based on the statistics. Milansbar is lightly raced for an 11 year old and was runner up in heavy ground in the Midlands Grand National on his last start. Horses with previous form in other versions of the National tend to run well in the big one.
Houblon Des Obeaux has more miles on the clock and was pulled up in the Eider Chase at Newcastle two starts back. However, he has run in the Grand National before (he got round in 10th place) and goes in the ground.
At a really big price try Pendra. The 10 year old Bay gelding ran in the grand National in 2016, finishing 13th, has form in the ground and is owned by JP McManus.
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