Saturday 13th October – Newmarket Rowley Mile – 3:00 – 7f (Row) Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1) (Colts & Fillies) (Class 1) (2yo)
The race was established in 1875 and was originally titled the Dewhurst Plate. The first four winners went on to win one or more of the Classics the following season. Many notable horses have won the event including Ormonde in 1885, Hyperion in 1932, Pinza in 1952, Nijinski in 1969, Mill Reef in 1970, Grundy in 1974, The Minstrel in 1976 and Frankel in 2010.
Seven favourites and one second favourite have won the race in the last 12 renewals with the other four won by horses priced at 20/1, 33/1, 20/1 and 10/1 respectively.
Recent winning form is a useful guide as eight of the last 12 winners won on their last start. Ten out of the 12 winners ran within 34 days of the race.
A previous run at Newmarket has not been required as only three of the last 12 winners had run at the course previously. Form over the race distance of 7 furlongs is far more relevant as eight of the last 12 winners had previously won over the race distance. Eleven of the last 12 winners had run at least four times prior to the race and nine winners had also won at least twice earlier in the season.
Horses with an unbeaten profile have won the race three times in the last 10 years and all of the last 10 winners ran in a Group race on their previous start.
Aiden O’Brien has saddled the winner of the Dewhurst winner for the last three seasons – five times in total over the last nine years so his runners certainly demand respect.
Previous Group winning form should also be noted as eight of the last 12 winners had previously won at least once in a Group 1 to 3 race.
Too Darn Hot won the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster on his last run, having won the Group 3 Solario Stakes at Sandown and his Maiden also at Sandown. The John Gosden-trained Bay Colt did not make his racecourse debut until 9th August and has entries in the Irish 2,000 Guineas and The Derby. He is ridden by Frankie Dettori who has ridden him on all three of his starts.
He runs off an Official Rating of 116 and given that he won his last race by 1¾ lengths is certainly still improving. As a comparison Frankel, who was also having the fourth start of his career in the Dewhurst, had an Official Rating of 123 at the same time.
Too Darn Hot, who is owned by Lord Lloyd-Webber, will go off at a very skinny price, so it might also be worth a small investment on Aiden O’Brien’s Mohawk who should be around 20/1 in the betting.
Please note: tips are followed at your own risk. Please gamble responsibly.