Grand National 2018

Grand National 2018: Who to pick based on probability

Grand National 2018: Earlier this week we had looked at tips for the Betway Aintree Hurdle based on historical probability, and picked Supasundae as the front runner of three likely winners. 

It was, however, one of the other of our three recommendations, L’Ami Serge, who took the win- completing a treble for trainer Nicky Henderson. 

What statistics are available for Saturday’s main event to help decide who are the best picks? Historically the National has been a much harder race to pick, with the bookie favourite coming out a winner in just 11% of the races in last 50 years. 

According to BetVictor – who have created an interactive version of the race, plotting data from the last half a century of Grand National runners – the most likely winner would be:

  • 10-year-old
  • Primarily green, striped silks and a white cap
  • Number 6

With that in mind, here are some tips from this year’s runners*:

  • Anibale Fly (10/1)
  • Total Recall (11/1)
  • Regal Encore (25/1)
  • Warriors Tale (33/1)

Have a look at the full data feature here

*Odds provided by BetVictor and correct at the time of publishing. 

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